Top 10 draft picks do not equal success

Think getting the #1 overall pick is a good thing? How about a top 10 pick? Your team gets one and fans and sock puppets start talking about the "impact" players available for your team and how that guy fits your team needs perfectly. It's their chance to get that guy who will turn it all around, to get you back on the winning track, a Super Bowl. The reality is that top 10 pick is as likely to set your team back even if they are not a bust as they are to put your team back on the winning track. Don't agree, fine, but I'm going to put the reasons and numbers out there and decide for yourself. Unlike ESPN, I believe most sports fans can think for themselves.

1. Guaranteed money: When teams have millions of guaranteed money tied up in a guy for 5-6 years, they cannot go out and sign other guys. Top 10 picks are guaranteed at least $10 million over the life of their contract usually 5-6 years. That's at least $2 million the team can't use to sign 2-5 decent backups and those are the guys who really decide how the season goes.



2. Expectations: A top 10 pick is expected to produce right away, and to produce big on a team that is usually terrible. Fans and media don't notice to often how long it takes for a 2nd or 3rd rounder to develop into a consistent NFL player but they do when the guy is supposed to be an instant impact player. When an organization misses on a guy it affects them for several years. Think about the Browns and theit high draft picks: Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, William Green. They not only had to keep those guys at least three years to see if they would pan out, they had to do everything to make the guy into a pro player even if it meant not coaching up another guy.



3. Changes in the organization: When a team is bad 2-3 years the fans, media and ownership want changes everywhere. It usually goes like this; the GM saves his ass by saying the coachis not coaching up the players he is drafting and the coach gets sent on his way or the coach is able to save his job but he has to get rid of assisstants.



4. Injuries: This one you can't really blame the teams for if a guy gets hurt after they draft him. All you can do hope that the injury is not career-threating like the one Cadillac Williams suffered. The Bucs have been looking for a back to take his place the past two years and have not been able to do it.


5. Bad scouting: The Mike Mamula/Pacman Jones theory, teams fall in love with a guy and refuse to believe game tape or they take the best player available even if he does not fit their offensive or defensive schemes or they believe that they can control the guy and he'll stay out of trouble once he hits the NFL.

Happens every year and it will happen again this year, guys like Mario Manningham (the new Mr. Wonderlic6), Aqib Talib (Floyd Reese loves this guy and doesn't believe his off-the-field stuff matters too much. Sure Floyd we all saw how well Pacman worked out when you picked him), Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis(another USC player who probably is too lazy to make it in the NFL), Devin Thomas( a WR that will be picked because of his numbers from one season)

Hopefully it won't be your favorite team that makes the mistake.